Sunday, March 15, 2009

THE NEW ECONOMY FACT AND FICTION

Well time to review what we have learned:

FACT: The US economy needs "securitized debt." Traditional sources of credit are not sufficient to make the engine run.

FACT: "Securitized debt" and the insurance on them, "credit default swaps," constitute what is called "toxic securities."

FICTION: These assets are being "marked-to-market." There is no market for them and they are being marked to notional values derived from "models" based on property markets.

FACT: Marking the "securitized debt" and "credit default swaps" erroneously, i.e. to notional values, has destroyed the balance sheets of those holding them, e.g. AIG Insurance.

FACT: The Federal Government is trying several methods to restore healthy balance sheets to the lenders.

FACT: The "TARP" program served to avert a total collapse in the financial system by restoring some of these balance sheets.

FICTION: The "TARP" has thrown tax money down the drain.

FACT: Through the "TARP" Uncle Sam has acquired a massive stake in our private financial institutions.

FICTION: President Obama's stimulus plan is a massive tax money giveaway.

FACT: President Obama's stimulus plan will save jobs by spending money.

FICTION: The Feds are wasting money trying to revive Fannies Mae and Freddie Mac (now owned by the Feds).

FACT: The Feds are providing funds to Fannie and Freddie to revive their "securitized debt" activities and thereby provide the credit needed to revive the economy.

FICTION: The Feds "TALF" plan will buy up worthless loans.

FACT: The "TALF" plan will buy up non-mortgage loans and issue these as "securitized debt."

FICTION: Uncle Sam is wasting tax payer money to the tune of $2-3 trillion.

FACT: Uncle Sam is borrowing money at cheap rates, maybe an average 1%, to buy up assets that will probably pay back more than their cost over the next 10 years.

FACT: The unintended result of the "financial meltdown of 2008" and "recession of 2009" will be to give Uncle Sam even more control over the economy. Already the largest consumer, 20% of the output to rise to 30% by 2010, the central banker, Federal Reserve, and rules maker, Uncle Sam is now the largest single owner of the private sector. Enter the "NEW ECONOMY."

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Leo, you are the most brilliant economic analyst on the horizon. Will you be advising the Obama administration?